The conviction engine reads seven independent factors. Four are core (they create stance), three are context (they confirm it). Here's what each does.
Core factors (these determine stance)
1. Delivery
What it measures: the delivery percentage from the last delivery-day combined with the price change on that day.
- Bullish fire: above-average delivery percentage combined with a positive price change
- Strong fire: significantly above-average delivery with a positive move
- Bearish fire: high delivery with negative price change (distribution)
The bigger the deviation from a stock's average delivery, the stronger the read. See delivery volume for the underlying concept.
2. Volume
What it measures: today's volume ratio (volume / 20-day average) combined with today's price change.
- Bullish fire: volume well above average combined with a positive price change
- Strong fire: exceptionally high volume ratio with a positive move
- Bearish fire: high volume with negative change
Note this uses today's freshest price, not the delivery-day price. Volume and delivery answer subtly different questions on purpose; they don't double-count each other.
3. Price Trend
What it measures: a composite of SMA alignment (50 > 200), weekly return, and recent close progression.
- Bullish fire: all three uptrend conditions present
- Strong fire: same conditions with a stronger weekly return
- Bearish fire: mirror conditions
This is the most heavily-weighted core factor because it captures multi-week trend rather than single-day events.
4. Deals
What it measures: bulk and block deals within the last 5 trading days. Direction from buy/sell imbalance.
- Bullish fire: net buy-side deals in the window
- Strong fire: large deals from named institutional buyers
- Bearish fire: net sell-side, especially exits by known investors
See bulk and block deals for the underlying mechanic.
Context factors (these confirm, never determine)
5. Market Breadth
What it measures: the day's advance/decline ratio across the broader market.
- Confirms bullish stance: more advancers than decliners by a healthy margin
- Confirms bearish stance: significantly more decliners than advancers
If the stance is bullish but breadth is bearish, breadth doesn't tilt the stance; it just doesn't add weight. Context never overrides the stock-specific signal.
6. Institutional Flow
What it measures: recent multi-day FII/DII net positioning. A majority of recent days net positive = supportive.
Only confirms an already-aligned stance. A stock with weak fundamentals doesn't earn Strong Bullish because FIIs were buying the index that week. See FII/DII flows.
7. Event Catalyst
What it measures: upcoming corporate actions (next 7 days) plus material filings in the last 7 days. Categories include earnings, board meetings, fund raising, buybacks, M&A.
Adds weight to the score when aligned with stance. A bullish stock heading into an earnings result with positive surprise is reinforced; the same stock without a near-term catalyst isn't penalised.
Penalties
The engine also applies two penalties:
- Conflict penalty: when factors oppose each other, the score is reduced. Prevents a mixed-signal stock from showing a clean stance.
- Extension penalty: extreme overbought or oversold RSI readings reduce the score. Stocks at extremes often revert, so the engine discounts conviction in those situations.
How to read the breakdown
On a stock page, the Verdict chapter shows conviction. On Pro and Max, each factor shows its verdict ("bullish", "neutral", "bearish") and the underlying number that drove it (delivery %, volume ratio, etc.). On Free, you see the overall band and stance as a badge, without the per-factor breakdown.
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